CICC: A rebound in US Treasury yields is unlikely
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最新报道：According to Bijie.com and ME, a research report from CICC on September 28 (UTC+8) indicated that the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.2% following the Fed's rate cut. The report argues that US Treasury risks are significantly lower than last year, and while a short-term yield rebound is possible, the central yield will likely fall back to 4% or even lower by year-end, suggesting an opportunity to invest. The sharp declines in US Treasury yields in Q4 last year and Q2 this year were both driven by the Trump administration, but through different transmission paths: last year's rate cut was primarily driven by a dampening of expectations for a rate cut; this year's tariffs were primarily driven by a revaluation of term premiums. Currently, with trade easing, interest rate cuts resuming, and the risks of declining credibility and a pause in easing policies all considered relatively low, the overall environment for US Treasury bonds is better than before, and a significant rebound in the central yield is not expected.
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