CICC: The biggest risk to the US economy remains quasi-stagflation, and we need to be vigilant against potential risk spillovers
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最新报道：According to Bijie.com, a CICC research report published on September 5th stated that the greatest risk to the US economy remains quasi-stagflation. The dual impact of tariffs and immigration policies is suppressing both demand and supply in the short term, potentially leading to structural inflation in the medium term. Declining consumer confidence, declining corporate investment appetite, and diverging bond market signals all demonstrate quasi-stagflationary characteristics. On a policy level, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may provide a temporary buffer, but they are unlikely to alter structural factors. Historical experience shows that stagflation is not a purely cyclical phenomenon, but rather the result of a combination of policies, structures, and market expectations. Against this backdrop, we must be vigilant against potential spillover risks to the US economy and the resulting volatility in financial markets.
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