CICC: Milan lowers the average rate cut in the dot plot
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最新报道：According to a report from Bijie.com, a CICC research report stated that the core message of the Fed meeting was that the "risk-controlled" rate cuts were standard, while the "dot plot" projected two more rate cuts this year, but there was significant disagreement. 1) On the surface, the "dot plot" predicts two more rate cuts this year, but a closer look at the voting distribution of the 19 voting members reveals that nine expected one or fewer rate cuts, nine predicted two, and one predicted another 125 basis point cut (clearly unlikely, with market speculation suggesting Milan). In other words, if Milan's low forecast hadn't dragged down the average, the "dot plot," which uses the median as the final result, would have been roughly evenly matched, with the probability of one or two rate cuts this year, roughly in line with the current futures market's projections of over 80% probability of rate cuts in October and December, respectively. 2) The divergence in 2026 is even greater, with the median probability of only one rate cut, which is significantly less than the three times currently factored into the futures market. However, because next year involves the replacement of Powell and several committee members, the market has not overreacted to next year's path.
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