CICC: How to trade if Powell leaves early?
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最新报道：According to the news from Bijie.com, on July 18 (UTC+8), CICC Research Report stated that if the Fed Chairman leaves office ahead of schedule, given that other conditions remain unchanged, it will be bad for the US dollar and good for gold. The short-term bull market of US Treasury bonds will be steep, and the medium- and long-term bear market will be steep until the Fed restarts the expansion of its balance sheet to suppress the long-term interest rate; benefiting from the expected early restart of the liquidity cycle, it may be good for stock market valuations in the medium and short term. If the Fed Chairman completes his current term normally, we expect the US Treasury to issue about $1.2 trillion in net US Treasury bonds in the third quarter, which may bring liquidity tensions, and ultimately it is expected to force the Fed to restart the expansion of its balance sheet and liquidity cycle, which will still be good for US stocks and gold, and bad for the US dollar. We expect that during Trump's second term, monetary coordination with fiscal policy will become normalized, and US liquidity is expected to be abundant for a long time.
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