最新报道：According to a report on Bijie.com on August 5th, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, noted that the July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates at 5.25%–5.50% and provided no guidance on future rate cuts, sparking market concerns about a prolonged period of high interest rates. The 10-year US Treasury yield subsequently rose to 4.24%, the US dollar index returned above 100, gold fell below $3,270, and Bitcoin experienced a short-term correction to the $116,000 range, with on-chain activity also declining. However, the July non-farm payroll report, released three days later, unexpectedly plummeted: only 73,000 new jobs were added, falling short of the expected 180,000, and the cumulative downward revision of employment data for May and June was approximately 90%. The reality of a "systematically overvalued" labor market has prompted a rapid market reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path. The CME FedWatch probability of a rate cut surged from 38% to 82%, with bets on two rate cuts this year rising to 64%. The 10-year yield subsequently fell below 4.10%, gold rebounded $40 intraday, and Bitcoin briefly rebounded before retesting around $112,000. Although the sudden drop in short-term employment data has caused significant market volatility, structural data such as household debt, credit card default rates, and commercial loans suggest that the US is currently experiencing a "slowing growth" phase rather than a systemic recession. This combination of "falling employment and easing inflation" may signal an imminent shift from tight monetary policy to loosening, placing risky assets in a period of high volatility and liquidity competition.