币界网报道：On July 3, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that Bitcoin has recently soared from $105,200 to $109,500, mainly benefiting from the substantial increase in the activity of the derivatives market: the open interest (OI) of major futures exchanges surged by 10%, totaling $3.2 billion, indicating that a large amount of new funds are pouring into the market. The growth was mainly driven by long positions, indicating that investors are optimistic about the future rise of Bitcoin and the market momentum is picking up. At the same time, the latest "small non-agricultural" ADP employment data unexpectedly fell (-33,000 people), triggering the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut to further heat up, and the probability of a rate cut in July rose to 27.4%. More importantly, the market generally believes that the Fed will take action in September, with a probability of a 25BP rate cut of 64%-72%, and even the possibility of a 50BP rate cut is not ruled out. Despite the loosening of the macro atmosphere, Bitcoin's current trend is still volatile and consolidating. The Put/Call ratio in the options market has risen to 0.72. $104,000 below has become a key support level, while $114,000 constitutes a short-term strong resistance. The on-chain capital flow remains stable, indicating that the main players are still waiting for the non-farm and initial jobless claims data later this week. Structurally, the market is playing two paths: if employment continues to be weak, the implementation of the September interest rate cut is expected to trigger a new round of Bitcoin's upward attack; on the contrary, if the non-farm is unexpectedly strong, the $104,000 line may be broken, triggering a technical correction. Overall, under the resonance of the macro policy shift and technical signals, Bitcoin is in a sensitive window period full of directional choices and potential volatility amplification.