最新报道：According to the news on July 24, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist of HTX DeepThink and researcher of HTX Research, pointed out that Bitcoin once surged to $121,800 in the intraday yesterday, and then fell back to $118,000 to fluctuate and consolidate. On-chain data shows that the average profit rate of all chips in the market has risen to about 57%. Although there is still room to go from the historical top, the upward momentum in the short term is limited. On the one hand, short-term profit chips continue to sell; on the other hand, the current structure has not yet made enough room for the main rising wave. Bitcoin has entered the accumulation stage, and the market is waiting for the signal of a new round of fund rebalancing. At the same time, the sudden change in Japan's political situation has attracted widespread attention from the market. The ruling coalition led by Shigeru Ishiba suffered the worst defeat in the Senate election since 1955. Although he insisted on not resigning, his political capital was seriously damaged. The yen rebounded against the US dollar in the short term and then fell back quickly, and currently fluctuated in the 145-150 range. Shigeru Ishiba's ruling difficulties will weaken Japan's bargaining power in the tariff negotiations with the United States on August 1, and the Bank of Japan will remain on the sidelines in the short term without a basis for raising interest rates in the absence of political uncertainty. The yen weakened, the stock market was under pressure, and the overall risk sentiment fell. In terms of global trade, the EU and the United States reached a tariff coordination agreement early this morning, avoiding the original tax increase plan on July 25, temporarily easing the tension in the transatlantic supply chain. This positive news led to a rebound in European and American stock markets, but the market generally believed that this was not enough to reverse the uncertain trend at the global macro level. CME Bitcoin futures positions continued to be high, the implied volatility of the options market remained at a medium-high level, and the net inflow of stablecoins slowed down, indicating that institutional funds were still on the sidelines. Overall, if BTC is to start the main rise in the future, it still needs to wait for two catalysts: one is the further clearing of short-term floating profit chips; the other is the clarification of macro uncertainties (especially the results of Japan-US trade negotiations). Before that, BTC is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the $115,000–$123,000 range. Next, we need to focus on the progress of Japan's political situation and tariff negotiations in early August, which may become a key point in the market's direction.