HTX DeepThink: Volatility rises, demand falls, and a large number of options expire in June to test the stability of the market

币界网报道:On June 27, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that more than $15 billion of BTC options and $2.3 billion of ETH options will expire today (data source: Deribit & Crypto.ro), of which BTC's Put/Call ratio is about 0.74 and ETH's is about 0.52, and the corresponding "biggest pain points" are at $102,000 and $2,200 respectively. Concentrated liquidation and rollover operations before expiration may amplify short-term fluctuations, but speculators are still enthusiastic about bullish contracts with strike prices of $110,000 and $120,000. At the same time, CryptoQuant's "Demand Momentum Index" has fallen to a record low. Despite the release of the GENIUS Act and the Hong Kong Stablecoin New Policy, prices are still difficult to break through the previous high; the implied volatility of options has risen sharply, especially the active buying of put options, indicating that the market is seeking downside protection. The actions of big players off-chain are also worth noting: Binance's BTC inflows in June dropped sharply to 5,700, GameStop raised $450 million through convertible bonds and has increased its holdings by about 4,710 BTC, and Metaplanet purchased another 1,234 BTC, with a total holding of 12,345 BTC. On the regulatory level, the US FHFA has required that the holdings of compliant exchanges be included in mortgage risk assessments, the SEC is accelerating the review of the physical subscription and redemption mechanism of Bitcoin ETFs, and the Republic platform plans to issue private equity tokens such as SpaceX and OpenAI with a threshold of $50-5,000. Faced with the market pattern of "high leverage amplifying volatility and low demand suppressing increases", investors may need to reduce leverage moderately and use Gamma strategies cautiously; large OTC inflows and ETF net overbought inflection points, as well as new opportunities brought by compliance, are worth paying attention to. In terms of the development prospects of compliant stablecoin applications, Sei has shown potential.

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