Reuters poll: Long-term U.S. Treasury yields expected to remain high as inflation and debt pressures weaken expectations of rate
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最新报道：According to a Reuters poll of 75 bond strategists, short-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to fall due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while long-term yields are expected to remain resilient due to stubborn inflation, ballooning deficits, and concerns about the Fed's independence. The median forecast in the poll indicates that the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, currently around 4.0%, will fluctuate around 4.10% in three and six months, and rise to 4.17% in a year. A sustained rise in long-term yields could further exacerbate Washington's rapidly deteriorating fiscal position. Many analysts say that with economic growth remaining strong and inflation well above the Fed's 2% target, policy is not sufficiently restrictive to justify the five rate cuts currently priced into interest rate futures markets between now and 2026. They warn that easing policy too much too soon, as the labor market begins to weaken, could reignite inflationary pressures and send yields soaring.
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