Traders are increasing their bets: the Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a 50 basis point interest rate cut before the end
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最新报道：According to a report from Coinnet, bond traders are increasing options bets, anticipating that the Federal Reserve will implement at least one 50 basis point rate cut at its three remaining policy meetings this year. Markets predict officials will deliver their first rate cut since 2025 on Wednesday, with a 25 basis point cut seen as the most likely outcome. However, while inflation remains sticky, a cooling labor market is prompting some traders to hedge against the risk of more aggressive rate cuts in the coming months due to a deteriorating economic outlook. Trading flows related to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) this week showed rising demand for December options contracts, which expire two days after the Fed's December 10th policy statement. SOFR is highly sensitive to Fed policy expectations. These positions would profit if the Fed delivers a cumulative two 50 basis point rate cuts or three 25 basis point cuts across its September, October, and December meetings. These trades reflect a more dovish path than swaps currently pricing in, which project a cumulative rate cut of approximately 70 basis points by the December meeting.
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