U.S. Recession Odds on Polymarket Plunge to 22% as Trade Tensions Cool
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最新报道：Odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 on crypto prediction platform Polymarket have plunged to 22%, the lowest since February, as economic fears ease. Earlier concerns peaked when Q1 GDP contracted 0.5% and Trump's tariff threats spiked Polymarket odds to 66% in May. However, improving U.S.-China trade talks and easing financial conditions led Goldman Sachs to lower recession probability to 30% last month. Polymarket pays out if NBER declares a recession or two consecutive negative GDP quarters occur.
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