Real Vision founder: Bitcoin will enter a "five-year cycle" this time, and will likely peak in Q2 next year
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最新报道：According to Bijie.com, on September 25th, Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal stated in his latest podcast released yesterday that Bitcoin is now replicating the ISM (Institute for Supply Management Index, also known as the "business cycle"). The key point is: Bitcoin now follows the ISM, and interest rates follow the same rhythm. In 2021-22, the Treasury Department increased the weighted average maturity of debt from four years to five years. As a result, the entire cycle was forcibly extended by a year—the original "four-year cycle" became a "five-year cycle." Models suggest that the ISM will peak in 2026; liquidity is likely to peak earlier because the second derivative (speed of change) of the ISM and liquidity will turn first. "Our guess is: the true peak will occur in 2026, most likely in Q2."
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