Citigroup reviews historical patterns before and after the first rate cut in a cycle: US stocks and bonds both rise, gold streng
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最新报道：According to a Citigroup research report on September 17th, based on historical data, both US stocks and bonds experience median positive returns before and after the first rate cut. Stocks experience a median gain of approximately 5% in the 50 days following a rate cut, but there is downside risk in the event of a hard landing. Bonds also benefit from both the anticipation and actual rate cuts, with yields typically reaching a low around the time of the first rate cut. The US dollar index exhibits a pattern of weakening first and then flattening, typically weakening before a rate cut but entering a range-bound trading pattern afterward. Precious metals like gold also experience gains before easing policies, but performance becomes more subdued after actual rate cuts, with more frequent range-bound trading. Citigroup analysts stated that these historical patterns largely align in 2024, with bond prices peaking around the first rate cut. Back then, the market priced in a rate cut more aggressively, while pricing in this cycle has been relatively modest, easing concerns about the bond outlook.
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