最新报道：According to Bitcoin.com, September has historically been Bitcoin's worst-performing month. More worryingly, analysts point out that a rare death cross signal has just appeared on major timeframes. A death cross occurs when a short-term moving average or indicator crosses below a long-term moving average. It typically signals the start of a bear market trend. While these signals don't guarantee a market decline, they often lead traders and investors to be more cautious. The First Death Cross: The MVRV Ratio. The first warning comes from the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, as explained by pseudonymous analyst Yonsei_dent on CryptoQuant. MVRV is an on-chain metric that compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized value (the average price of the coin over its last movement). A high ratio indicates potential overvaluation, while a low ratio indicates undervaluation. In a recent CryptoQuant post, Yonsei_dent noted that MVRV has just formed a death cross. The 30-day moving average has crossed below the 365-day moving average. Historically, such crossovers foreshadow corrections. They indicate that short-term enthusiasm is fading relative to the long-term trend. For example, the 2022 MVRV death cross coincided with a significant pullback during the bear market. Second Death Cross: Weekly MACD The second signal comes from Bitcoin's weekly MACD indicator. The MACD measures momentum by tracking the divergence between its exponential moving averages (EMAs). A death cross occurs when the MACD line crosses below its signal line. This typically indicates weakening buying pressure and downside risk. Historically, this signal has been reliable in identifying market tops or long-term corrections. Similar events in April 2024 and February 2025 marked 30% declines. Third Death Cross: EMA The third warning comes from analyst Deezy, who focuses on Bitcoin's exponential moving averages. He highlighted that the 20-day EMA had just crossed below the 50-day EMA—a classic death cross pattern. Deezy pointed to the last similar event in February 2025, when Bitcoin dropped another 23%. If history repeats itself, a correction could push the price to $86,000. The three death cross signals—MVRV, MACD, and EMA—are now aligned for September 2025. Together, they paint a cautious picture for Bitcoin. History shows that death crosses often lead to volatility. However, they can also be false alarms during strong bull markets. This time, the stakes are higher as investors await the Federal Reserve's September rate cut decision, which is expected to boost sentiment towards cryptocurrencies.