最新报道：According to Coinnet, the EUR/USD pair bottomed out at 1.1391 on the first day of August, its lowest point in a month. Regardless of market sentiment, the US dollar (USD) found support, maintaining its positive momentum throughout a fairly busy week. However, following the release of poor US data, the dollar ultimately gave up its gains on Friday. The pair eventually stabilized around 1.1550, still maintaining a significant weekly decline. Amidst the volatile trade war, the United States and the European Union (EU) reached a trade agreement that imposes 15% tariffs on most US exports and calls for EU investment in various US industries. EU tariffs on US steel, aluminum, and copper exports will remain at 50%. However, further details remain missing. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen noted that these tariffs could be subject to reciprocal tariffs. However, she did not provide much detail on whether or when the EU would announce these tariffs. European leaders generally criticized the agreement, with German Chancellor Friedrich saying it would cause "considerable damage" and French Prime Minister François Bayrou calling it a "dark day" for the EU. Mid-week, US President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports into the US. This was seen as a "punishment" for the left-wing government. The White House also announced a general 50% tariff on imports of semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives. Finally, the August 1st deadline came into effect on Friday, expanding the scope of new tariffs. Trump reached an agreement with neighboring Mexico to extend additional negotiated tariffs for 90 days, but imposed a 35% tariff on Canada. Stocks plummeted before the weekly close. The decline reflected market concerns about the potential impact of this decision on global economic progress. Federal Reserve Defiance. Also mid-week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced its monetary policy decision. As widely expected, policymakers kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, with a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. However, the decision contained a surprise. For the first time in decades, two dissenters, Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, voted in favor of lowering borrowing costs. Despite this, Chairman Jerome Powell explained the decision as driven by ongoing uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. Powell also explained that with inflation still above the Fed's 2% target and the labor market remaining tight, the central bank should maintain interest rates at their current level. According to Powell, this decision allows policymakers to react promptly. Powell did not hint at a possible rate cut at the September meeting, preferring to remain on the sidelines. The decision sparked another wave of discontent from President Donald Trump, who has long called for lower interest rates. He took to social media to attack the Fed Chair, calling Powell "too late" and claiming his decision resulted in billions of dollars in losses. A data-heavy week ended with some blockbuster news. European data released today showed that the European Union is emerging from its difficulties, thanks to the European Central Bank (ECB)'s aggressive interest rate cuts. Germany released its preliminary estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Data showed that the economy contracted by 0.1% in the three months ending in June, after growing by 0.4% in the previous quarter. The country also released a flash estimate of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for July, showing an annualized increase of 1.8%, down from 2% in June. Retail sales rose by 4.9%, nearly double the previous 2.6% gain. The EU's flash second-quarter GDP data showed a 0.4% increase, better than the expected 0.2%, while the annualized growth of 1.4% exceeded expectations for 1.2%. On the downside, the preliminary estimate showed July's HICP remained at 2% year-on-year, compared with expectations for 1.9%. The core annualized reading also remained unchanged at 2.3%. In the United States, the calendar was packed with employment-related data ahead of the crucial non-farm payroll report. However, the country also released a flash estimate of second-quarter GDP, showing the US economy growing at a 3% annualized rate, significantly better than the 0.5% decline in the first quarter and above expectations for a 2.4%. The upbeat data fueled demand for the US dollar, which was later exacerbated by the hawkish Federal Reserve. Regarding employment data, the June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated 7.43 million job openings on the last business day of June, down from 7.77 million openings recorded in May (revised from 7.76 million) and below market expectations of 7.55 million. Wednesday's ADP Employment Change report was more encouraging. It showed private sector jobs added 104,000 in July, while June's loss was revised down to 23,000 from a previously reported -33,000. Finally, the Challenger Job Cuts report showed that US-based companies announced 62,075 layoffs in July, compared to nearly 25,900 a year earlier. This reading was significantly higher than the 47,999 announced in June and the second-highest level for July in the past decade. The non-farm payroll data shocked the market. The non-farm payroll data was finally released, and all hell broke loose. The country added only 73,000 jobs in July, while the June reading was revised downward to 14,000 from the previously reported 147,000. In fact, revisions show that over the past few months, jobs have fallen by approximately 260,000 jobs compared to the previous estimate. Furthermore, as expected, the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% in July, while the labor force participation rate fell from 62.3% to 62.2%. Finally, annual wage inflation, measured by the change in average hourly earnings, rose from 3.8% to 3.9%. This news sent the US dollar into sell-off mode. Following the Fed's monetary policy announcement,Speculative interest shifted toward a September hold, with the odds of a no-holds decision surging to around 60%. However, a dismal monthly jobs report reversed market sentiment. Market participants now believe the probability of a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting exceeds 66%. It's worth noting that before the weekly close, the US also released the July ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which unexpectedly contracted to 48 from 49 in June, also below expectations of 49.5. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was revised downward to 61.7 for July. This was after an initial estimate of 61.8 and below expectations of 62.0. By the end of the week, the stock market had retained much of its tariff-related losses, reflecting tariff-related concerns. Regardless of any easing in the labor market, the risk of higher inflation remains. With this in mind, the Fed is likely to remain on hold again in September. The macroeconomic calendar will be light on details in the coming days. The most relevant data will be the US ISM Services PMI for July and EU retail sales for June. In other words, the trade war is likely to take center stage again.