Minsheng Securities: Powell shows both a hawkish and dovish side
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最新报道：According to Bijie.com, a Minsheng Securities research report on July 31 (UTC+8) stated that the July interest rate meeting was an important experiment. Powell displayed both a hawkish and dovish side. The hawkish stance lies in his refusal to ease interest rate cuts and his refusal to succumb to pressure. The dovish stance lowers the bar for a Fed policy shift—even if data in the next two months (before the September meeting) is weak, it could justify a rate cut, something that wasn't sufficient in previous years. However, the market currently prioritizes the hawkish stance, with the US dollar index surging overnight, reaching nearly 100. However, it's worth noting that a single weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll report may be all it takes to reverse expectations. Looking ahead, objectively assessing subsequent US macroeconomic fundamentals will be crucial for both the Fed and the market. Regarding the September FOMC meeting, we agree with the market: a rate cut is the baseline scenario.
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