最新报道：According to CoinMarketCap, the price of Dogecoin (DOGE) fell over 13% over the past week, cooling somewhat after a strong 31% rally over the previous three months. While the price appears to be range-bound at the moment, this consolidation can be deceptive. Several on-chain and technical signals suggest hidden strength is building beneath the surface, particularly a key divergence that traders often overlook. Short-term holders are capitulating, but cost-base support is starting to kick in. The first sign of a shift in sentiment came from the Unrealized Net Profit/Loss (NUPL) of Short-Term Holders. This indicator tracks the unrealized profits and losses of wallets that purchased DOGE over the past 155 days; typically, these are the fastest-moving participants in the market. As prices declined from their late-July highs, the NUPL for Short-Term Holders plummeted from a high of 0.24 on July 20 to 0.06 on July 28. This is a clear sign that many recent entrants are either selling at small profits or experiencing minor losses, a common phenomenon when pullbacks shake out the weak. But this wave of short-term capitulation may have hit a wall: a strong support area. DOGE's cost-basis heatmap (plotting wallet clusters by average acquisition price) shows a significant supply band around $0.21. Over 9.77 billion DOGE lies within this range, indicating that many holders are buying at this level and are likely defending it. Historically, these areas have served as support for Dogecoin's price during pullbacks. The combination of sentiment exiting (declining NUPL) and structural defense (cost-basis support) creates a perfect setup: panic is fading, while determined hands are holding the line. As sellers lose momentum, a hidden bullish divergence forms. Now, a momentum signal has emerged that could change the story: a hidden bullish divergence on the relative strength index (RSI). The RSI tracks the strength of price movements; typically, in a bullish trend, price and RSI rise together. But a hidden divergence breaks this pattern. Over the past few days, Dogecoin's price has been forming higher lows, a sign of faster buyer intervention during declines. However, the RSI has been forming lower lows, indicating that while momentum has cooled, the price structure remains intact. This mismatch is crucial; it suggests sellers are losing momentum, not gaining it. Hidden bullish divergences often occur during consolidations or pullbacks within a larger uptrend; this is the context here, as DOGE has still gained over 30% over the past three months. This form of divergence suggests that the broader DOGE price uptrend remains intact, and that what's happening is merely consolidation, not a bearish reversal. When combined with short-term holders NUPL falling into capitulation and the cost-basis heatmap support holding firm at $0.21, the RSI setup suggests more than just strength; it completes the case for a bullish continuation brewing beneath the surface. For Token TA and Market Updates: Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya's daily crypto newsletter here. Dogecoin Price Needs to Breakout to Confirm Setup Dogecoin is currently trading just below $0.23, hovering between key Fibonacci levels: $0.23 (the .382 retracement) and $0.21 (the .5 retracement). For the bullish divergence narrative to fully take hold, the price needs to hold above $0.21 and reclaim $0.25. A break above $0.25 would open the door to $0.28, where the next resistance level lies. If the $0.21 area is breached, however, momentum will fade, and the price could revisit $0.19 or even $0.17, invalidating the bullish thesis. However, the cost-basis heatmap clearly shows how strong the $0.21 level is.