Cathay Pacific Haitong: Firing Powell is difficult, low-return, high-risk and low-probability
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最新报道：According to Bijie.com, Cathay Pacific and Haitong Securities published a research report on July 29th stating that firing Powell is a difficult, low-return, and high-risk move, making it unlikely. Trump is more likely to exert influence by preemptively announcing his successor. Given the significant disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, Trump's efforts to reshape the Fed may have limited success. Trump's attack on Powell reflects the spread of fiscal anxiety. The passage of the "Big Beautiful Bill" confirms the United States' deepening path-dependence on procyclical deficits, at the cost of high debt issuance costs and declining long-term debt acceptance. Pressuring the Fed is a "dirty" approach to addressing fiscal anxiety, with quick results but significant side effects. Once investors perceive a threat to the independence and transparency of monetary policy, the probability of a repeat of the "triple kill" scenario involving stocks, bonds, and currencies will increase significantly.
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