最新报道：This is a snippet from the Supply Shock newsletter. To read the full version, please subscribe. It’s time to focus on the bull run. There is no formal definition for when a Bitcoin “bull run” begins and ends. Conventional wisdom holds that a “bull run” begins when the asset rises at least 20% from a local trough and ends when it retraces by the same amount from a recent peak. Needless to say, these are noob-level numbers. Let’s count the “bull run” from the bottom of the previous bear cycle. In this case, Bitcoin has been in a bull run for 952 days, starting on November 21, 2022, when BTC/USD hit a low of $15,504. As of $107,500, Bitcoin has risen 590% during the bull run. How does this compare to previous bull runs? Yes and no. Ignoring the initial price discovery from the genesis block to mid-2011, the first bull run that began in late 2011 peaked at 620x around 750 days. The second bull run, which began in late 2015, saw more than a 100x increase in less than 850 days. Bitcoin took about 1,060 days, nearly three years, to rise nearly 22x in its third up cycle between late 2018 and 2022. This time around, Bitcoin reached a maximum of 6.2x, which more or less matches the historical law of diminishing returns in bull market cycles. You can see this on the logarithmic scale chart above. Notice that the distance between the lines is relatively constant. If we do see a similar bull run to the last one — and that’s a big if, since three bull runs aren’t enough to form any legitimate trend — then we still have about 110 days before Bitcoin reaches its cycle peak. Awkwardly, the dollar has lost about 10% of its value since November 2022, at least using the DXY index as a reference. That means that in November 2022 dollars, Bitcoin is actually now priced closer to $97,700. Never mind. We can safely say that Bitcoin is on its way to its second-longest bull run to date. If Bitcoin peaks sometime after mid-October, this will officially be a historic bull run, at least in terms of duration. Get news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters: The Breakdown: Decoding crypto and markets. Daily. Empire: Crypto news and analysis to kick-start your day. Forward Guidance: The intersection of crypto, macro, and policy. 0xResearch: Get Alpha straight to your inbox. Lightspeed: All about Solana. The Drop: Apps, games, memes, and more. Supply Shock: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.