Is Polymarket Losing its Touch on Election Predictions?
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最新报道：Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, has launched a market for users to bet on whether New York State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani will become New York City's next mayor. The market allows participants to trade shares predicting the outcome, with "Yes" shares currently priced at 13 cents and "No" shares at 87 cents, implying a 13% chance of Mamdani winning. The 33-year-old progressive politician, known for his democratic socialist views, has not officially announced a mayoral run but has been speculated as a potential candidate. Polymarket's prediction markets have gained attention for forecasting political events, though their accuracy remains debated. The platform operates using smart contracts on Ethereum and Polygon, enabling users to trade positions with cryptocurrency. This market follows previous political prediction markets on Polymarket, including those for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. While not an official indicator, such markets provide insights into public sentiment about potential political developments.
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