币界网报道：On July 3, Arthur Hayes published an article today pointing out that after Trump's spending bill (called the "Big Beautiful Bill") is passed, there may be a brief stagnation in the creation of US dollar liquidity. Since January 1, the Treasury has continued to fund the government mainly by withdrawing funds from its checking account, the Treasury General Account (TGA). As of June 25, the TGA balance was $364 billion. According to the Treasury's guidance in its latest quarterly refinancing announcement, if the debt ceiling is raised today, the TGA balance will be replenished to $850 billion through the issuance of bonds. This will lead to a contraction of US dollar liquidity of $486 billion. The only major US dollar liquidity item that may alleviate the negative shock is the outflow of funds from the RRP account (currently $461 billion). The bull market may be interrupted in a short period of time. From now until Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Fed meeting in August, the market will consolidate to slightly lower. If the TGA replenishment proves to be unfavorable for US dollar liquidity, the downside is between $90,000 and $95,000. If the replenishment proves pointless, Bitcoin will hover around $100,000 instead of breaking through the all-time high of $112,000. "I have a feeling Powell will announce an end to quantitative tightening and/or other seemingly mundane but significant bank regulatory reforms." By early September, the debt ceiling will be raised, the TGA will be largely replenished, and the Republicans will focus on distributing benefits so that they don't get hit by Mamdani in this district in November 2026. At that time, the Green Cross will pierce the bears driven by a surge in money issuance.