币界网报道：Historically, Bitcoin [BTC] has never seen losses of more than 10% in July, making it the most statistically resilient month in BTC trading history. However, despite trading just 5.5% below its all-time high, BTC has failed to break out. It has been more than 40 days since BTC last touched $111K. Since then, we have seen two lower lows and a lot of sideways trading. Is investor patience starting to wear thin now? Are traders quietly heading for the exits instead of buying the dips? Bitcoin's resilient month faces a test of patience Some might argue that we are far from a cycle top. Typically, major cycle tops coincide with euphoria, overextended momentum, and vertical price action. None of these appear to be present, at least for now. However, cracks are starting to show. Spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed on July 1 after experiencing four consecutive weeks of inflows, with net outflows of $342.2 million according to Farside data. This coincides with BTC’s 1.33% drop to a weekly low of $105k as July began. But it’s not just institutional flows that are showing signs of stress. Profits, not conviction, are leading this market According to data from Glassnode, realized profits on the Bitcoin network have surged. On June 30, about $2.4 billion of BTC was realized at an average price of $107,198, marking the highest daily profit-taking peak in nearly a month. The 7-day SMA for realized profits jumped to $1.52 billion, well above the 2025 average of $1.14 billion, but still well below the $4-5 billion peak seen in late 2024. What does this mean? According to AMBCrypto, there are growing signs that this cycle may be structurally different, potentially challenging Bitcoin’s historically resilient performance in July. July’s Behavior and Structural Tailwinds Nothing illustrates Bitcoin’s resilience in July more than the 2022 bear market. After a brutal 37.3% drop in June, BTC rebounded 16.8% in July, closing the month at around $25,000 even amid the depths of macro uncertainty. But this seasonal strength is no accident. July typically marks the start of a second-half capital rotation as institutional investors rebalance their portfolios and reenter risk assets like Bitcoin. Uncertainty tends to recede as key macro data, like the Fed’s rate decision, CPI/PCE inflation data, and GDP data, have become priced in. For example, in July 2022, core inflation slowed for the first time in months, with CPI falling 0.6% month-over-month, sparking a 17% rally in Bitcoin. Fast forward to 2025, and the picture looks decidedly different. Inflation remains sticky, well above the Fed’s 2% target. This ongoing macro pressure is creating a divide. Risk capital is hesitant, and inflows into Bitcoin are waning. As a result, Bitcoin’s current narrow range-bound movement is starting to look less like a healthy consolidation and more like the beginning of a local top. Yes, July has been kind to Bitcoin — but this time, the data suggests: proceed with caution.