币界网报道：The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July has significantly declined to just 19.1%, according to the latest market data. This marks a sharp reversal from earlier expectations, as traders recalibrate their positions following stronger-than-anticipated economic indicators and persistent inflation concerns. Analysts note that recent labor market resilience and consumer spending figures have reinforced the Fed's cautious stance on easing monetary policy prematurely. Several major financial institutions have revised their forecasts, with some now predicting no rate cuts until at least September. Fed officials have emphasized data dependency, with Chair Jerome Powell reiterating the need for "greater confidence" that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target before considering any policy loosening. Market volatility has increased as investors digest the shifting outlook, with Treasury yields rising and rate-sensitive sectors under pressure. The diminished July cut probability reflects growing consensus that the central bank will maintain higher rates for longer to ensure inflation is fully contained, even as some economic growth metrics show signs of moderation. This development comes amid ongoing debates about the appropriate policy path, with some economists warning against keeping rates too high for too long while others argue premature easing could reignite inflationary pressures. The Fed's next meeting in late July will be closely watched for any signals about the timing of potential policy adjustments.