Next week's macro outlook: Non-agricultural data is coming, Trump continues to "play" with the entire market

币界网报道:According to the news on June 28, at the beginning of this week, the US dollar rose due to the news of US intervention in the Israeli-Iranian conflict, but with the signing of the ceasefire agreement, market sentiment improved, and the US dollar gave up all its gains and fell below 97, hitting a new low since March 2022. Looking ahead to next week, traders will pay close attention to the US PMI data and the non-farm payroll report, which will be released ahead of schedule on Thursday due to the holiday. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week: Monday 21:45, US Chicago PMI in June; Monday 22:00, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on the US economic outlook; Tuesday 01:00, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak; Tuesday 21:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will participate in a group meeting; Tuesday 22:00, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, May JOLTs job vacancies, May construction spending monthly rate; Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21, June unemployment rate, June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, May trade account; Thursday 21:45, US June S&P Global Services PMI final value; Thursday 23:00, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on US monetary policy. For the June nonfarm payrolls report, the market expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2% and the number of employed people to fall to 129,000 from the previous increase of 139,000. Other labor market data, such as the JOLTs job openings data for May will be released next Tuesday, while the ADP private employment report for June will be released next Wednesday. If the ISM data next week also paints a similar picture, investors may scale back their rate cut bets, especially if the nonfarm payrolls continue to show a healthy labor market. As the market gradually adjusts to the idea that the Fed may be patient before resuming the process of rate cuts, the dollar may rebound.

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