最新报道：This narrow strait in the Gulf is a shipping channel for the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), which provide energy for a large part of the global economy. The northern part is controlled by Iran. As of 2023, 20% of the world's LNG and 25% of seaborne oil trade pass through the strait, making it a very important trading location. It has been so for centuries; its vast hinterland is rich in luxury trade goods, but it is difficult to access lucrative trading ports. After the US attack on Iran's nuclear and uranium enrichment facilities on June 22, 2025, the Islamic Consultative Council officially decided to close the strait. What does this mean for global oil prices? The Strait of Hormuz is vital to the gas and oil exporters in the Gulf region because it is the only way for the large amounts of oil and gas produced by the oil-rich countries in the region to be exported by sea. This narrow passage is located between Oman and Iran and connects the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Sea of Oman. After the US airstrike on Iran, two supertankers with the capacity to transport about 2 million barrels of crude oil turned around in the Strait of Hormuz due to the increased risk of retaliation that could affect commercial shipping in the region. The two tankers, Coswisdom Lake and South Loyalty, entered the Strait on Sunday and then suddenly changed course. Goldman Sachs has drawn attention to the increased risk of global energy supply due to the possible disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. The bank said that this situation could lead to a sharp increase in oil and gas prices. The bank predicts that Brent crude oil prices may rise to $110 in a short period of time. Is the Strait of Hormuz completely under the control of Iran? In the 1980s, Iran began to threaten the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, United Arab Emirates) signed a defense agreement in 2000 to counter the Iranian threat. Similar to NATO, the rule of "an attack on one member state is considered an attack on all members" is accepted. The United States has various defense agreements with the Gulf countries and has established military bases. Iran is therefore effectively capable of seriously disrupting or blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Possibly. Iran might try to mine the strait, which is 34 km (21 mi) wide at its narrowest point. The country’s military or the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) might also try to attack or seize ships in the Gulf. Importance for the EU According to Eurostat, for the energy products analyzed in this article, the chart below shows their share of total EU imports for 2021-2024 and in the first quarter of 2024 and 2025. Due to the sharp fluctuations in prices, the share of energy products in total EU imports fluctuates significantly and reaches 22.8% of total EU imports in 2022. It then drops sharply to 17.8% in 2023 and again to 15.4% in 2024. Moreover, it drops by 1.7 percentage points (pp) in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The distribution by product shows that between 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, the share of liquefied natural gas (+0.6 pp) and gaseous natural gas (+0.2 pp) increased, while the share of oil (-2.3 pp) and coal (-0.2 pp) decreased. Although the Middle Eastern countries are not the largest oil and gas importers in Europe, these countries have a large share. After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices pose a great danger not only to EU countries, but also to the national economy as a whole. The foreign exchange market saw oil prices rise to their highest level since January after the US weekend attack on Iranian nuclear facilities sparked supply concerns. Brent rose by 2.49 percentage points to $78.93 per barrel, while US crude oil rose by 2.56 percentage points to $75.73. If the conflict between Iran and Israel begins again and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices may accelerate again. In technical analysis, we can see that the price has retreated from the resistance level in the weekly time series. Nevertheless, the MACD continues to send bullish signals. If no military action takes place, the price decline is likely to continue. Otherwise, a strong rise in prices is only a matter of time. The target price would be $88.30. We can see that the same is true for natural gas prices. In technical analysis, the price is testing support immediately. At this tested level, the Fibonacci 23.6% level holds its strong support. The MACD continues to send bullish signals. If the price rises from the support again, the target price would be 4,770. Conclusion The Strait of Hormuz is a key choke point for global oil supplies, with about 20% of the world's energy transported through the strait. Geopolitical tensions between Iran, Israel, and the wider Middle East have the potential to disrupt this vital shipping route, which would have a huge impact on global oil prices. Analysts warn that if the strait is closed, oil prices could surge to over $110 per barrel, exacerbating already volatile global markets.