币界网报道：JPMorgan analysts warn of a 40% chance of a US recession in the second half of 2024, citing potential economic slowdown risks from new US tariffs on Chinese imports. The bank's research note highlights concerns that these tariffs could disrupt supply chains and fuel inflation, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer. While consumer spending has remained resilient so far, JPMorgan cautions that tariff impacts combined with slowing job growth and persistent inflation may tip the economy into contraction. The analysis comes as the Biden administration considers raising tariffs on electric vehicles, semiconductors, and other strategic sectors to as high as 25%. Economists note these protectionist measures could backfire by raising costs for American businesses and consumers while potentially triggering retaliatory actions from China.