SPX6900 rises 18% – but traders beware, this risk could ruin everything

币界网报道:After falling to a low of $0.92, the SPX6900 [SPX] rebounded and retested the key $1 support level. Of course, this rebound followed the improvement of the broader crypto sentiment after the easing of geopolitical tensions. In sync, the SPX reclaimed lost ground, marking a sharp upswing. SPX6900 futures woke up with a surge in prices. Riding this recovery wave, the SPX surged to a local high of $1.26 before slightly retreating. At press time, it hovered around $1.24, up 18.78% in 24 hours. This was not the only number that jumped. The SPX's trading volume surged 85.8% to $161 million. Such a huge surge in trading volume indicates an increase in activity from either the buyer or seller. Interestingly, most of the activity came from the derivatives market. The open interest (OI) of SPX6900 swelled by 28.52% to $117.2 million, indicating a large influx of new contracts. This growth in OI means that investors rushed into the market to take strategic positions as the price started to rise. In fact, the long-short ratio remained above 1, confirming that most traders hold long-term bets. Market signals are out of sync. Despite the surge in price, volume, and futures activity for SPX6900, it seems that major market players are not convinced. This is because SPX6900 investors are actively selling. Most holders turned to profit-taking after the price recovered in the past day. Looking at the exchange flow balance, it still remains positive at around 25.8k. The positive value here indicates that investors and holders are selling more than they are buying. Therefore, more funds are flowing into the exchange than outflowing, which can lead to higher selling pressure. On top of that, the net fund inflow also turned positive. This shows that while the price climbed, investors sold nearly 7 million SPX tokens. Even more striking is the plunge in the stock-to-flow ratio. On June 23, the memecoin’s SFR was as high as 21 billion. At press time, it barely holds at 11,000. Such a significant drop in the SFR indicates high supply and low demand. If demand fails to keep up, lower scarcity will lead to lower prices. So… what now? $0.95 or $1.5? Despite the sharp rebound, there is a clear tug-of-war between speculators and sellers. While short-term traders have joined in amidst the broader market relief, long-term conviction seems to be shaken. Unless bulls can sustain a daily close above $1.20, the rally could run out of steam. If sellers remain dominant, SPX could revisit the $0.95 support. But if the momentum holds and $1.2 turns into solid support, SPX could charge towards the next $1.5.

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