币界网报道：In the Iran-Israel-US affair, I revisited a lesson I’ve repeated many times, and learned a new one: Never buy oil on Middle East concerns, especially when prices are already higher. Trump’s early announcement about lower oil prices looks highly suspicious, similar to his Liberation Day call for tariffs and his crypto shenanigans early in his term. Don’t fight him next time he says buy/sell. Finally, when a guy like this with no shirt on speaks out about oil, it means panic has set in and it’s time to get out. I’m not being 20/29. Yesterday, when the situation became clear, I made the case for downplaying war concerns. “I could easily see crude falling back to $64, and oil companies could be aggressively hedging today,” I wrote when crude was at $71. It certainly hit that target pretty quickly, with today’s low at $64.00, and now we’re trading at $64.90. Note that I also repeatedly highlighted the inverted head and shoulders pattern that formed before it pushed higher. Now, that’s a $14 gain in just 36 hours, so it’s time to digest that. I picked the $64 level because it’s clear on the chart where the Iran concerns really start. In addition to extremely oversold short-term conditions, we are now back to retesting prior highs. Momentum is strong now and OPEC+ could announce another big production increase in early July. This is a tough tape to beat and the path of least resistance from here remains lower, and early clues as to how much lower will depend on how much of a bounce we get from here. If there’s one thing bulls can latch onto, it’s that the shape of the curve isn’t bad, with some nice backwardation. But for now, it’s all about money flows.