币界网报道：After nearly two weeks of sustained selling pressure on Ethereum [ETH], a strong 8.27% green candle has emerged, recouping nearly 21% of losses in this single move as of press time. On closer inspection, this resembles a textbook “reset and bounce” setup, where the cooling provides patient investors with an opportunity to buy supply at a discount as macro FUD begins to ease. However, the line between a relief bounce and a breakout can be very fine. Which way Ethereum ends up going will likely determine its directional bias heading into the third quarter, according to AMBCrypto. Ethereum is approaching a heavy supply zone. Once again, Ethereum’s nearly two-week drop has been significantly more dramatic than [BTC]’s, with ETH’s 26% drop from its mid-June $2,878 peak more than double BTC’s 10.89% drop. This isn’t just a fluke. While Bitcoin has shown relative resilience, Ethereum short-term holders (STH) NUPL fell directly into the capitulation zone when ETH broke below the $2.5k mark, after trading in a narrow range around this level for nearly a month. This was further confirmed by the surge in realized losses, indicating that STH began to unwind its positions on weakness. Now, as ETH climbs back up to the $2.5k area, these holders may see this rally as an escape opportunity to breakeven as Ethereum has re-entered a high-density cost basis cluster, as shown in the chart below. The yellow and orange bands highlight where most Ethereum holders are buying their supply, which is heavily concentrated around this area. Many entry points are located in the $2.4k to $2.6k range, making it one of the most crowded and critical areas to watch as ETH approaches resistance. If ETH breaks out of this area with strength, it may clear the way for further gains. But if weak hands step in to exit at breakeven, it may turn into a near-term ceiling. ETH faces a true test of HODLers’ conviction. As Ethereum climbs to key cost basis clusters, whether holders retain confidence in a continued move higher could shape the trajectory of Q3. Despite strong Q1 and Q2 performances, ETH has yet to successfully reclaim the $3k level, a psychological barrier that could prompt some investors to sell early, especially as macro risks remain. That’s why the recent $100 million in ETF inflows is encouraging, as it shows that there is still fresh money flowing in. Coupled with a 9.3% increase in Binance ETH perpetual open interest, with a 61% long bias, it’s clear that the market is leaning bullish. But is it conviction? Or are we seeing blind optimism, and is this a setup for yet another volatility-driven shakeout as ETH approaches resistance? Well, BlackRock’s recent $18.4 million sell-off adds a layer of caution. Smart money also appears to be pulling back. Therefore, unless Ethereum can forcefully break through the $2.4k to $2.6k supply wall, the idea of hitting $3k cleanly in Q3 might be out of reach for the time being.