币界网报道：Trump: I want to thank Iran for notifying us in advance. Encourage Iran to move toward peace. Fed Bo Bowman: Now is the time to consider adjusting the policy rate. The US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the expected was 53.0. Canada Carney: It is possible to reach the right agreement with the United States, but there is no guarantee. Fed Goolsbee: So far, the impact of tariffs has not been as bad as imagined. Trump: Everyone keep oil prices down, I am watching. Bank of England Bailey: Britain will enjoy the benefits of low debt costs longer than other places. ECB Lagarde: Survey data show that overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened. The White House: Trump is still interested in a diplomatic solution with Iran. NEC Director Hassett: If Iran retaliates, there will be a lot of oil reserves. Markets: WTI crude oil falls $6.13 to $67.71 US 10-year Treasury yield falls 3.5 bps to 4.34% Gold rises $5 to $3373 S&P 500 rises 1.0% GBP leads gains, CAD lags. Hope you enjoyed today’s show. Today’s news and price action are a reminder that even in war, the people behind the scenes are just playing games. The first tip today came from Trump, who verbally hammered oil prices. This isn’t the first time Trump has made some market-sensitive comments about price direction, you may remember him hinting at buying stocks ahead of the Liberation Day tariffs. Today’s situation is similar, as we learned shortly after Iran’s retaliatory strike that the US had advance warning of where they were striking — essentially, that it was all a play. As a result, crude oil prices plunged, the clearest sign yet of a de-escalation in the war. If anything, it looks like the war could be completely over in a matter of days, as there is no ground invasion or willingness for the US to get involved for a long time. After peaking at $78.40 shortly after the open, WTI crude was sold off hard throughout the day, falling to $67.70, down $11 intraday. It was a similar story elsewhere, with all the war-related trades unwinding: stocks rallied, and the dollar bid reversed. The dollar's rebound was also helped by a U-turn from Fed's Bowman. Last year, she opposed the Fed's rate cuts, but is now calling for a cut as early as July. This shift is not good for the Fed's credibility or the dollar as Trump prepares to pick a new Fed chair. The reason the dollar was so weak afterwards - USD/JPY completely reversed a 200-pip gain - is that Fed policy is very uncertain right now. Other central banks have cut rates enough to pause at lower levels, but the Fed could cut much more aggressively from here, especially with oil prices falling like they did today. All eyes are now on the euro as it approaches 1.16 again and looks set to close at the day's high.