Predicting Bitcoin's next move: up or down? Here are 4 possible outcomes

币界网报道:After breaking through the $100,000 mark, Bitcoin [BTC] briefly dipped below that level for the first time since May 8. However, it has since moved back above that level. Analysis suggests that despite the price recovery, the asset is still following a two-way path, with both downside and upside potential still possible. An analysis method known as the Wyckoff model was used to analyze Bitcoin's potential move, revealing four possible outcomes. There is only one bullish path - will altcoins follow the rally? The first scenario is a bullish scenario - and the only one - known as the "Lag Cycle" and the "Altcoin Rally Opportunity." During this phase, Bitcoin will enter an accumulation and redistribution phase, essentially consolidating within a well-defined support and resistance range. During this period, Bitcoin is often bought in bulk at favorable prices, providing momentum for a rally that could reach between $140,000 and $146,000 in October. This consolidation phase for Bitcoin could spark an altcoin season, where many assets trend higher, possibly starting in July. Three bearish outcomes could trap Bitcoin traders. The analysis also outlines three bearish trends for Bitcoin, each with similar characteristics. During these phases, investors or traders holding open positions will face significant pressure as price action will be primarily directed towards the liquidity zone. The first bearish scenario shares similarities with the bullish scenario, involving a similar consolidation. However, instead of breaking through the resistance level, Bitcoin will plummet below, breaking through the support level of the consolidation range. The other two bearish scenarios involve the price trading to the resistance level only once. In one of the scenarios, the asset reacts to the overhead resistance and then moves sideways in a narrow range before finally breaking down. In the last scenario, Bitcoin maintains a bearish posture and experiences a sharp decline with little consolidation along the way. Analyst Jao Wedson noted that one scenario is crucial to determine Bitcoin's neutrality. Investors are accumulating despite the uncertainty. AMBCrypto examined other market indicators to assess Bitcoin's potential direction. Investors have begun to accumulate BTC in large quantities following its recent price drop. At press time, exchange net flow data (which tracks inflows and outflows on centralized platforms) reflects a net buying trend. At the time of writing, around 1,400 BTC, worth about $141 million, has been purchased and transferred to private wallets. This coincides with a notable drop in Bitcoin exchange reserves, indicating that fewer BTC are available on exchanges. Lower exchange reserves could lead to tighter supply, which could push asset prices higher in the long term. The bullish sentiment is also starting to be reflected in the derivatives market. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on CoinGlass has risen and is at 0.98 at press time. A ratio above 1 indicates that buying volume in derivatives exceeds selling volume, reinforcing the growing bullish momentum.

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