币界网报道：Geopolitical shocks were the initial driver of today's FX market: news of a U.S. military attack on an Iranian enrichment facility sparked a bid for the U.S. dollar and a sell-off in the Canadian dollar in relation to crude oil. USDCAD broke above the confluence of May trendline resistance and the 50% retracement of the May-June decline at 1.37782 and briefly hit a three-week high. But the breakout failed to last. With Wall Street recovering early losses and U.S. Treasury yields moving lower, the focus turned to policy divergence. Fed Governor Bowman echoed Governor Waller's comments on Friday that a July rate cut is "likely," highlighting the emerging divergence from Chairman Powell's more cautious stance. The dollar reversed, pulling USDCAD back inside the yellow shaded swing band and recently back below it. USDCAD is now fluctuating around former support at 1.37498. A decisive close below would keep the failure narrative alive and paint this morning's surge as a bull trap; in this case, a break below the 38.2% retracement of 1.37221 is the first natural attraction, while the 100 hour moving average just below it adds weight. Conversely, a recovery into the swing zone and above 1.3771 and the 50% of 1.3778 would re-energize buyers and open the door to 1.3814 and the 61.8% of 1.3824 as targets. Key Technical Levels Resistance 1.3778 – 1.3781 (50% retracement and upper swing zone limit) 1.3814 (May minor pivot) 1.38342 (early May high / 61.8% Fibonacci) Support 1.37221 (38.2% May retracement) 1.3701 (100 hour moving average; beginning of broader support band) 1.3685 -1.3692 (swing zone) As long as geopolitics and Fed rhetoric pull in opposite directions, expect two-way flow, with traders inclined to oppose the above levels. PS: The probability of a rate cut in July is as high as 20%, while the probability of a September rate cut is now 80%. Two Fed officials are greater than 1. In addition, there are political cues that quickly refuted the Fed Chairman, who hinted on Wednesday that the Fed is determined to wait and see, and there will be an imminent tariff-induced inflation surge.