币界网报道：The threat of the Strait of Hormuz after the US attack on Iran has attracted market attention, and negotiations are still possible. Here is today's SoSoMacro review - focusing on the key signals that are currently driving the market: 1. Iran held its first meeting with European officials on Friday, but no breakthrough was made. 2. The United States launched an attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday night Eastern Time, but the extent of the damage is still unclear. 3. The Iranian parliament believes that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision lies with Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Analysts estimate that there is less than a 15% chance that Iran will actually close the strait, and forecast markets such as Polymarket have also reduced this probability to 33%. This is because there have been precedents in history where such threats have never been put into action, and closing the strait will damage the economies of Asian and Gulf countries, thereby limiting Iran's options. 4. Both the United States and Iran have shown their willingness to negotiate: US Secretary of Defense Austin said that the United States has sent messages to Iran through various channels, urging it to engage in peaceful negotiations; Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran has not yet decided whether to close the door to diplomatic dialogue.