The Probability of Iran Blocking Strait of Hormuz Surges to 52% On Polymarket After Trump's Air Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Facili
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币界网报道：The likelihood of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has risen sharply after U.S. airstrikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, with Polymarket contracts now pricing a 40% chance of closure by June 30 (up from 14%) and 52% by year-end (up from 33%). Analysts warn a shutdown could spike oil prices to $120-$130/barrel, potentially triggering stagflation that would impact crypto markets. Despite these geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin remains stable above $100,000. The strait handles 20% of global oil shipments (20M barrels/day), making it a critical chokepoint. President Trump confirmed the strikes destroyed three nuclear sites while urging Iran to "make peace."
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