Opinion: The crypto market is still in a state of preparation, and volatility may explode at any time

币界网报道:According to a report by QCP Capital, a crypto investment institution in Singapore, the global market remains on the sidelines as investors assess geopolitical risks and the potential for a rebound in volatility. Gold retreated after the Israeli attack on June 13, weakening safe-haven demand, while WTI crude oil prices remain above the $75 mark. Energy markets continue to be constrained by the Israel-Iran conflict, and speculation about possible U.S. military involvement has intensified. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly as investors bet on an increased probability of the U.S. directly participating in regional conflicts in the next 48 hours, triggering a moderate withdrawal of funds from the dollar. In terms of cryptocurrencies, BTC continued to move sideways. Despite heightened macro uncertainty and political noise from Trump's social media comments, price volatility remains subdued. Market sentiment is cautious, and position data shows that investors are waiting for clearer catalysts. The risk reversal indicators for BTC and ETH show that investors in June and September contracts are more inclined to hedge downside risks, indicating that bulls are actively protecting spot positions. It is worth noting that the implied volatility of ETH June at-the-money options is lower than that of September contracts, reflecting the contraction of short-term specific risk premium, which may be related to the reduction of event-driven hedging or profit-taking of short-term volatility. In contrast, BTC near-month contracts still maintain a slight volatility premium. The current crypto market is still in a state of preparation, and the next headline news, macro-turn or tail event may become the fuse to detonate historical volatility.

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