What Is Airwallex's Founder Wrong About Stablecoins?

币界网报道:Let me first state the conclusion: In the G10 golden corridor such as the USD-EUR, Airwallex's "seconds + 1/10,000th of the fee" is indeed almost perfect; but the financial world is by no means limited to this highway. Stripe bought Bridge at will, Visa connected stablecoin settlement to its own network, and Circle staged an explosive IPO on the New York Stock Exchange - these actions together outline a larger picture: whoever can dig through the "last mile" of money will have the opportunity to rewrite the next round of payment foundation. 1. The halo of "0.01% + seconds" can only cover 15% of the territory. Jack Zhang posted a long article on X, and the core point is very direct: price - Airwallex has reduced the USD→EUR fee rate to 0.01%; speed - real-time settlement of funds, not necessarily faster on the chain; landing - stablecoins are expensive and regulated, and no hardcore use cases have been seen in 15 years. 85% of the world's cross-border traffic is not on the G10 road. Argentine freelancers, Kenyan vendors, Turkish importers, etc. all face problems such as slow bank transfers, high fees, and weekend downtime. Stablecoins have tripled in these neglected markets in half a year. Second, three curves explain "why it is stablecoins" Latin American curve: The scale of stablecoins will be 20 billion US dollars in 2021 and will rise to 75 billion in 2024, due to high inflation, US dollar shortages, and weekend downtimes driving the demand for US dollars on the chain. Giants bet on the curve: Stripe acquired Bridge for US$1.1 billion, and Visa promoted stablecoin settlement. The goal is to keep the money in its own ecosystem and transform into a custodian bank, wealth management supermarket, and credit entrance. Wall Street valuation curve: Circle made a net profit of US$780 million in USDC position interest alone last year, and its stock price doubled in three days after its IPO, showing the cash machine effect of the interest rate spread between the US dollar and Treasury bonds on the chain. 3. In addition to "cheap" and "fast", there are more difficult hidden costs, including T+2 liquidity, Nostro pre-deposit, and KYC multi-head review. After these frictions are compressed into code logic, the 0.01% fee advantage is no longer obvious. 4. Three scenarios that can outperform banks right now USD→ARS salary: Bank foreign exchange control and weekend downtime cause transfer delays, USDC wallet arrives in 5 minutes, and the comprehensive fee rate is about 1%. KES↔NGN small and medium-sized goods payment: Kenya and Nigeria have no direct clearing, and the chain P2P rolls 24 hours a day, with a fee rate of 1-2%. Global liquidity scheduling on weekends: Banks go dormant on Fridays, funds are stranded, and the annualized return of on-chain second-level fund scheduling is 4%. 5. How to accelerate the flywheel before 2026 After MiCA takes effect, at least ten regional banks in Europe will issue EUR stablecoins. Super Apps such as Grab and MercadoPago grayscale test USDC wallets, and tens of millions of users will enter the world on the chain. The closed loop on the chain is formed, and merchant collection, supply chain payment, employee salary, and financial management interest are all on the same network, and the handling fee is close to zero. Deloitte predicts that by 2027, 10% of the idle cash of the Fortune 500 will remain in income-generating stablecoin accounts, and bank demand deposits will be greatly reduced. 6. The last words left by Circle IPO Circle uses the interest rate differential account and network effect to tell the market: "Cheap remittances" are just the prologue, and rewriting the financial foundation is the main show. Airwallex has performed well in the G10 market, but the remaining 85% of the market is changing the track and the scoreboard. In the future, money will flow freely like mail, and the rate difference will no longer be important. Sit back and watch the pattern reshuffle, don't tie your hands and feet at the starting line.

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