币界网报道："History will not simply repeat itself, but it will rhyme with similar endings." I. Introduction As the world's largest crypto asset by market value, Bitcoin's price fluctuations have always attracted great attention from the market. April and October are known as the "golden window period" for Bitcoin's market. Bitcoin's price trend has significant monthly regularity and seasonal characteristics, such as a tendency to rise in October and November, and weak performance in September. This article deeply explores the price performance of Bitcoin in each month over the years, analyzes the market logic and reasons in combination with the macroeconomic background, and predicts the trend in the second half of 2025 to help investment decisions. II. Analysis of Bitcoin's historical monthly performance patterns Statistical data from 2013 to 2024 show that Bitcoin prices have obvious monthly seasonal patterns: The strongest performing months: February (average increase of 13.12%, such as 43.55% in 2024), October (average increase of 21.89%), and November (the highest in the whole year, 42.95% in 2020). Months with weak performance: January (average increase of 3.81%, multiple sharp declines), August (average increase of 1.75%), September ("September curse", average decline of -3.77%). Months with large fluctuations: April (average increase of 13.06%, large fluctuations), May ("devil month", sharp rises and falls), July (average increase of 7.56%, significant fluctuations). Transition months: March (average increase of 12.21%), June (close to zero), December (average increase of 4.75%). The overall seasonal characteristics are: weak at the beginning of the year, rising in spring, differentiation in summer, trough in autumn, and rising in the fourth quarter. The historical law is significant but affected by the macro economy. 3. Analysis of the reasons for the monthly performance of Bitcoin Market cycle and capital flow: The four-year halving cycle drives the bull market, and the bull market peaks are mostly in the fourth quarter, resulting in large increases in October and November, and the bear market mostly starts at the beginning of the year, with weak performance in January. Seasonal effects of macroeconomics and traditional markets: such as the "Sell in May" effect leading to weakness in May and June, and the tax season affecting capital flows in March and April. Macro data release and policy cycle: The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting affects fluctuations in March, June, September, and December, and the US dollar index is inversely correlated with Bitcoin prices. Investor psychology and market participation: The year-end holiday affects trading volume, and capital allocation in the fourth quarter increases risk appetite. IV. Macroeconomic environment and market background in 2025 The US economic growth rate has slowed down, inflation has stabilized, the Federal Reserve interest rate has remained high, and expectations of interest rate cuts have been postponed. Sino-US trade frictions have intensified, the global security situation has become tense, risk aversion has increased, and gold prices have hit new highs. Traditional market risk appetite has shifted to structural defense, and institutional funds prefer gold and Bitcoin. Crypto market institutions continue to enter the market, regulatory games are pending, the asset size of Bitcoin ETF exceeds US$130 billion, and the market is becoming mature. V. Outlook and summary of trends from June to December 2025 June: The market is volatile, and wait-and-see is the main approach. July: The probability of rising is high, and the monthly increase can reach double digits. August: The summer is sluggish and the market is weak. September: Beware of the "September curse", and may adjust by 10-15%. October: Liquidity improves, and the main rising stage of the bull market is possible. November: The strongest month, or it may reach a peak of 180,000-200,000 US dollars. December: The trend depends on the performance in November, and the closing price of the whole year is likely to double. Summary: Bitcoin is expected to rise in twists and turns in the second half of 2025, and there is great potential for strong growth from October to December, but it is necessary to be vigilant about high volatility and black swan risks. Investors should combine historical laws with the macro environment to do a good job of risk management. About us Hotcoin Research focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors, helping investors seize the value growth opportunities in the Web3 era. Risk warning The cryptocurrency market is volatile and investment is risky. Investors are advised to strictly manage risks.